Time flies, we are already halfway through 2023. Major investment managers have successively released their investment outlooks over the past month. We have prepared a summary of their perspectives on the growth outlook, inflation expectations, rate policies, equity and fixed income markets outlook, and downside risks. If you want to read a specific outlook, please click on the manager’s name in the write-up. Hopefully, our work can be helpful to you.<\/p>\n
\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u90fd\u9884\u8ba1\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002SSGA\u548cNuveen\u6700\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u57282024\u5e74\u800c\u975e2023\u5e74\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cWellington Management\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u66f4\u4e3a\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u8d70\u5f31\u3002Allianz GI\u540c\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5171\u8bc6\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5468\u671f\u8f6c\u53d8\u800c\u7834\u706d\u3002Fidelity International\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8870\u9000\u3002JPMAM\u3001PIMCO\u548cEastspring\u5bf9\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u5219\u8f83\u4e3a\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u90fd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u660e\u786e\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u591a\u9879\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u5176\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\u6536\u7d27\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\u6548\u5e94\u6d88\u9000\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d22\u653f\u9006\u98ce\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n
They express different opinions on China’s economic recovery. Most expressed caution or disappointment about the lack of momentum in the rebound, while Wellington Management believes in the solid foundation for sustained growth. Cautious investment managers mention weak business investment, sustainability of demand for service, the lack of clarity of Chinese growth target, and the uncertainty of the US-China relationship.<\/p>\n
\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u6301\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u770b\u6cd5\u3002Fidelity International\u3001SSGA\u3001Wellington Management\u3001Capital Group\u3001Amundi\u548cEastspring\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u3002Fidelity\u786e\u4fe1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7f29\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u3002SSGA\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5546\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u8ffd\u4e0a\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u5e45\u5c06\u56de\u843d\u3002Wellington Management\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u9ad8\u4f01\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u6062\u590d\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u5c06\u5728\u5168\u5e74\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u7eed\u964d\u5e45\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5f3a\u5f31\u3002Amundi\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u538b\u529b\u51cf\u8f7b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u652f\u6491\u6709\u9650\u3002Eastspring\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u57fa\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u5e45\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ee4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u8f83\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0cPIMCO\u3001JPMAM\u3001T. Rowe Price\u3001Allianz GI\u548cHSBC AM\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u8fc1\u79fb\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c06\u4f7f\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662fJPMAM\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u5229\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u5c06\u4f7f\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u540c\u6837\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u52302%\u3002T. Rowe Price\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u505c\u7559\u5728\u7ea63%-4%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u670d\u52a1\u9700\u6c42\u6301\u7eed\u5f3a\u52b2\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5171\u8bc6\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u8def\u5f84\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u56de\u5e94\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u52a8\u6001\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49\u591a\u91cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n
Investment managers generally agree that central banks are near the end of their rate-hiking cycles, but most think that rate cuts will only occur once clear signals of a recession emerge. Allianz GI thinks the market is too optimistic and expects the Fed and ECB to hike rates a few more times by year-end. PIMCO and Nuveen think central banks will prioritize inflation control, Nuveen sees no Fed rate cut until the end of this year. Amundi expects the Fed to push the US economy into recession to bring inflation closer to 2%. Wellington Management has a similar view and warns that the Fed’s policy may be guided by markets’ predictions instead of its own.<\/p>\n
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There’s a shared apprehension about investing in US equities. Concerns about year-to-day performance, high valuations, AI hype, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s future actions, and signs of a weakening economy underpin a broad agreement that the US market carries downside risks. As Fidelity International, JPMAM, SSGA, T. Rowe Price, SSGA, Mackenzie, and Amundi suggest, the US may not be the best bet in the coming months.<\/p>\n
\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u770b\u5230\u673a\u4f1a\u3002JPMAM\u3001Nuveen\u3001T. Rowe Price\u3001SSGA\u3001Mackenzie\u3001Eastspring\u548cWellington Management\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5b58\u5728\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u5305\u62ec\u6b27\u6d32\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u6216\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u4f30\u503c\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u6f5c\u529b\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u73af\u5883\u4e5f\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5404\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u54ea\u4e9b\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u5177\u524d\u666f\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u3002T. Rowe Price\u548cWellington Management\u770b\u597d\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u800cSSGA\u548cMackenzie\u56e0\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u75b2\u5f31\u53ca\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002Fidelity International\u3001T. Rowe Price\u3001Eastspring\u3001Amundi\u548cWellington Management\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4f9d\u636e\u5305\u62ec\u76c8\u5229\u7a33\u5065\u3001\u4f30\u503c\u5438\u5f15\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u5229\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cSSGA\u56e0\u62c5\u5fc3\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6682\u65f6\u89c2\u671b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u80a1\u7968\u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u3002SSGA\u548cWellington Management\u62bc\u6ce8\u76c8\u5229\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u6b63\u9762\u60ca\u559c\u4e14\u4f30\u503c\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u770b\u6cd5\uff1b\u4f46T. Rowe Price\u548cMackenzie\u56e0\u589e\u957f\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u4ee5\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u80a1\u7968\u5c55\u671b\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u662fJPMAM\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e3b\u9898\uff1a\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u3002\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u6750\u6599\u3001\u7cae\u98df\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7a00\u7f3a\u3002\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u6750\u6599\u7684\u7a00\u7f3a\u5c06\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u6280\u672f\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u884c\u4e1a\u53ca\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u503c\u94fe\u5e26\u6765\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u6c34\u548c\u7cae\u98df\u77ed\u7f3a\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u6280\u672f\u3001\u518d\u9020\u6797\u9879\u76ee\u548c\u7eff\u8272\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u4e24\u7c7b\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a\u4e00\u7c7b\u7528\u4e8e\u5f25\u8865\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3\uff08\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u548cAI\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7c7b\u7528\u4e8e\u7167\u987e\u8001\u9f84\u4eba\u53e3\uff08\u8001\u5e74\u62a4\u7406\u3001\u9000\u4f11\u793e\u533a\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u533b\u7597\u670d\u52a1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9274\u4e8e\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n
Generally, they exercise caution when allocating to developed market credit, and prefer higher-quality bonds. SSGA and Mackenzie favor investment grade over high-yield bonds due to the impact of tightening credit conditions and the possibility of a hard landing. Amundi recommends quality credit and core sovereigns, they don’t think that credit markets have priced in the economic slowdown. They argue that monetary tightening is yet to be reflected in corporate fundamentals due to liquidity accumulated during covid and the low short-term refinancing needs.<\/p>\n
\u5728\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u503a\u5238\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u4f4d\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\u8d85\u914d\u3002T. Rowe Price\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6536\u7d27\u5468\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u5cf0\u503c\u3002Amundi\u9884\u8ba1\u4f01\u4e1a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5c06\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u5e76\u770b\u597d\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u3002Wellington Management\u867d\u7136\u770b\u597d\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u672c\u5e01\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u6717\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u6bb5\u76d8\u6574\u671f\uff0c\u6216\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e29\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u63d0\u53ca\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u4fe1\u8d37\u7d27\u7f29\u548c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6301\u7eed\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u5404\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u5171\u540c\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bc6\u5207\u7559\u610f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n
Allianz GI\u3001Nuveen\u3001PIMCO\u3001SSGA\u548cT. Rowe Price\u62c5\u5fc3\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u540e\u7eed\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u8d37\u7d27\u7f29\u3002T. Rowe Price\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u81f3\u4e09\u5e74\u624d\u80fd\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u94f6\u884c\u5012\u95ed\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\uff0cAllianz GI\u4ecd\u62c5\u5fc3\u975e\u94f6\u884c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u540e\uff0cPIMCO\u548cAllianz SE\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2024\u5e74\u610f\u5916\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6311\u6218\u3002Allianz SE\u8868\u793a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u5373\u5c06\u4e3e\u884c\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5408\u8ba1\u5360\u5168\u7403GDP\u8fd175%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u5965\u5730\u5229\u548c\u5357\u975e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4efd\u6982\u89c8\u80fd\u8ba9\u60a8\u7b80\u8981\u3001\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u5f53\u524d\u6295\u8d44\u610f\u5411\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u60a8\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u8ba8\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002Irostors\u662f\u9996\u4e2a\u5229\u7528IR\u6570\u636e\u5e2e\u52a9IRO\u548cCFO\u7b80\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5b9a\u5411\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\u3002\u5982\u9700\u4e86\u89e3\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Time flies, we are already halfway through 2023. Major investment managers have successively released their investment outlooks over the past month. We have prepared a summary of their perspectives on the growth outlook, inflation expectations, rate policies, equity and fixed income markets outlook, and downside risks. If you want to read a specific outlook, please […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":146,"template":"","class_list":["post-111","ss_article","type-ss_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article\/111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ss_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}