\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u671f\u95f4\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n
For the last blog of 2022, we went through the 2023 outlook published so far by major investment managers and the most recent asset owners' survey led by Natixis Investment Managers to give you a crisp summary of institutional investors' views on crucial topics for the coming year.<\/p>\n
Most investment managers and asset owners think a recession is likely. The general view is that the US will go through a mild recession. Investment managers are generally conservative about US GDP growth, and the forecast is in the -2% to 0.5% range vs. 0.9% for the consensus forecast. On the other hand, most managers expect a deep recession in the UK and Europe. But what worries asset owners more is the likelihood of stagflation. For China, the majority expects an exit from covid restrictions in 2023, with GDP growth rebounding to 4.5-5%. However, many do not see the growth materialize before 2Q or 2H23.<\/p>\n
The consensus view is that inflation will moderate and avoid a 1970s-style crisis. The question, though, is by how much. Both asset owners and investment managers think inflation will stay above the 2% target level until the end of 2023. For example, JP Morgan AM forecasts US inflation to be 3.5% by 4Q23. While BlackRock and Fidelity do not aim at a level, they highlight that structural drivers such as declining demographics, reshaping of the supply chain, and energy transition may keep inflation above central banks' target for longer.<\/p>\n
While the current Fed funds rate target range is 3.75-4%, the market expects it to peak at 4.5%. Investment managers are, in general, more hawkish. Schroders and JP Morgan AM expect the rate to peak between 4.5 and 5%, while Allianz GI aims at above 5%. When it comes to Fed's pivot, very few provided a timing. We only saw AXA IM and ROBECO forecasting the first rate cut in 2H23, which is later than the market anticipates. We note, however, that Goldman Sachs is surprisingly hawkish, as it expects no rate cut in 2023, mainly on the back of the strength of the US labor market. In line with their forecasts on inflation, BlackRock and Fidelity believe that interest rates will settle higher than where they used to be. Also, worth highlighting that in line with their rates expectations, most investment managers expect USD to weaken in 2023.<\/p>\n
\u5c06\u5b8f\u89c2\u89c2\u70b9\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u660e\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0cBlackRock\u548cWellington Management\u5f3a\u8c03\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u91cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u9891\u7387\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u7ec6\u81f4\u3002\u518d\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u8d85\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4e5f\u8ba4\u540c\u8fd9\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u63d0\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\/\u5229\u7387\uff08Janus Henderson\u3001T. Rowe Price\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u63d0\u5230\u6ce2\u52a8\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7814\u7a76\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u6210\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ea7\u4fe1\u7528\u503a\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u7684\u9996\u9009\u3002\u7edd\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ea7\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u5177\u5907\u62b5\u5fa1\u8870\u9000\u7684\u826f\u597d\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u4e00\u6ce2\u201c\u5760\u843d\u5929\u4f7f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
For High Yield and Equity, it is mainly subject to timing. No one denies there are opportunities to build solid returns during this downcycle. However, most managers consider the current credit spread for High Yield still tight compared to the historical average (although T. Rowe Price begs to differ). Similarly, major managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, Amundi, Allianz GI, Schroders, T. Rowe Price) remain convinced that equity valuation is still too high. For example, Fidelity sees earning downgrades in 1H23 and equity trough to follow. Recurring themes in the outlooks are:<\/p>\n
\u8bb8\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\uff08Allianz GI\u3001Fidelity\u3001Invesco\u3001Schroders\u3001Aviva Investors\uff09\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002Fidelity\u770b\u597d\u4e2d\u56fd\u5fc5\u9700\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u80a1\uff0cAviva Investors\u5219\u770b\u597d\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u7535\u5b50\u548c\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u3002Schroders\u5173\u6ce8\u7531\u653f\u7b56\u91cd\u70b9\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u672c\u5730\u5316\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u3001\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5efa\u7b51\u673a\u68b0\u53ca\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u673a\u6784\u56e0\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u800c\u770b\u6de1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9664\u4e0a\u8ff0\u98ce\u9669\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8981\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa\uff0cAllianz GI\u548cFidelity\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u9879\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u53ca\u53bb\u5e749\u6708\u82f1\u56fd\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u6050\u614c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e0c\u671b\u672c\u6587\u80fd\u4e3a\u60a8\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u60a8\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u8bae\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u795d\u60a8\u5e74\u672b\u5047\u671f\u6109\u5feb\uff01<\/p>\n
\u4e0e\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7Irostors\u8054\u7cfb\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u65d7\u4e0b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ecf\u7406\u3002\u5982\u60a8\u6709\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
First and foremost, we would like to thank you for your active followership and the exchanges we had over the past six months. For the last blog of 2022, we went through the 2023 outlook published so far by major investment managers and the most recent asset owners' survey led by Natixis Investment Managers to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":142,"template":"","class_list":["post-115","ss_article","type-ss_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article\/115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ss_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}