While the global recession has remained the most commented topic by investment managers since mid-Aug, the European energy crisis is again a hot topic as winter approaches. This month, we gathered the investors' latest views on this crisis's short-term and long-term impacts and explored the resulting areas where you can elaborate on your equity narrative.<\/p>\n
\u7b80\u8981\u56de\u987e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\uff1a\u6b27\u6d3240%\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u81ea\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u540e\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u7ec4\u6269\u5bb9\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u9ad8\u4e8e\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4e5f\u6784\u6210\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u4eba\u8f6c\u5411\u6df7\u5408\u529e\u516c\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u529e\u516c\u573a\u6240\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\u6062\u590d\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd4\u56de\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5e0c\u671b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u5371\u673a\u5982\u4f55\u9010\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\uff0cLord Abbett\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u8be6\u7ec6\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n
A recession in Europe looks inevitable. Amundi, the largest European investment manager, believes it is likely that the continent will continue to experience frequent reduced gas flows and partial disruptions as Russia will gain the most bargaining power from such a scenario. This winter, they expect a European recession driven by higher energy and food prices. BlackRock, JPM Asset Management, Russell Investments, and many others have the same view, albeit with slight differences in timing.<\/p>\n
\u636e\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u79f0\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u662f\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u897f\u6b27\u5bb6\u5ead\u4f9b\u6696\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u71c3\u6599\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u964638%\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u4f7f\u7528\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4f9b\u6696\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a75%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u8d85\u8fc790%\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fdb\u53e3\u3002Northern Trust\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u5e02\u573a\u5177\u6709\u533a\u57df\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4ef7\u683c\u7ea6\u4e3a\u6bcf\u5146\u74e6\u65f6USD 13.6\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ea6\u4e3aUSD 31\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ea6\u4e3aUSD 61\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u6b27\u6d32\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7EUR 200\uff0c\u662f10\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u768410\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n
Energy rationing for industries is now on the table. European Policy Centre thinks that supply-side alternatives have been largely exhausted. The EU's next logical move is to act on demand. The European Council approved an EU-wide gas demand reduction proposal in August. But countries need to carefully balance supplies between households and firms. High utility bills will damage consumption, while reduced factory operations will limit industrial output. The shortages will take a toll on growth, and the ECB is unlikely to help as it focuses on controlling inflation and supporting the euro.<\/p>\n
The situation may worsen if there is no concerted effort to support European utility companies. Uniper, Germany's biggest importer of Russian gas, was nationalized last week for EUR 29 bn. It is one of the largest bailouts in the country's history, but it is only the tip of the iceberg. Europe has a liberalized power and gas market where utility companies trade their production on exchanges. Producers can sell their power in advance against security deposits. These deposits, aka margin calls, have risen sharply in line with energy prices. As a result, several companies were exposed to insolvency. Governments and regulators are now forced to step in to prevent bankruptcy. Equinor, Fortum, Axpo, Centrica are the few big names that appeared in the headlines, but thousands of energy firms across Europe face similar issues.<\/p>\n
\u957f\u671f\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002Premier Miton\u3001Schroders\u548cGoldman Sachs\u90fd\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u66ff\u4ee3\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4f9b\u5e94\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u6f2b\u957f\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u786e\u4fdd\u6db2\u5316\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4f9b\u5e94\u5408\u540c\u9700\u8981\u6570\u5e74\uff0c\u5efa\u8bbe\u6db2\u5316\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u50a8\u5b58\u8bbe\u65bd\u5927\u7ea6\u9700\u89813-5\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u6838\u7535\u7ad9\u5efa\u8bbe\u6240\u9700\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u957f\u3002\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u7535\u529b\u50a8\u5b58\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8fd8\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u5efa\u8bbe\u76f8\u5173\u8bbe\u65bd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u8fdb\u53e3\u5927\u91cf\u94a2\u6750\u3001\u51b6\u91d1\u7164\u548c\u77ff\u4ea7\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
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We hope that you found the above article helpful. Irostors is an all-in-one platform that helps IROs leverage digital communication and data science technologies to increase ROI. If you wish to know more, sign up for free or get in touch with us for a demo.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
While the global recession has remained the most commented topic by investment managers since mid-Aug, the European energy crisis is again a hot topic as winter approaches. This month, we gathered the investors' latest views on this crisis's short-term and long-term impacts and explored the resulting areas where you can elaborate on your equity narrative. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":140,"template":"","class_list":["post-117","ss_article","type-ss_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article\/117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ss_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}