{"id":118,"date":"2022-08-26T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-06-22T04:59:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T04:59:51","slug":"positioning-your-equity-narrative-amid-persistent-inflation","status":"publish","type":"ss_article","link":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/article\/positioning-your-equity-narrative-amid-persistent-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u901a\u80c0\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u5b9a\u4f4d\u60a8\u7684\u80a1\u6743\u6545\u4e8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5ba1\u9605\u4e86\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u768430\u591a\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u6709\u5173\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bfb\u8fc7\u6211\u4eec\u5e74\u4e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u5bdf\u6216\u8bb8\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n<p>In this article, we are giving you an update on investment managers&#039; views on inflation, a list of potential long-term drivers of inflation, and a few ideas on strengthening your equity narrative against inflation risks. But first things first, let&#039;s get the definition straight.<\/p>\n<h2>\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u80c0\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u901a\u80c0\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6807\uff1aCPI \u548c PCE\u3002\u672c\u6587\u805a\u7126 CPI\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6700\u5e38\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u6700\u53d7\u5a92\u4f53\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0cPCE \u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08CPI\uff0c\u6216\u603b\u4f53CPI\uff09\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52a1\u7bee\u5b50\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u6838\u5fc3CPI\uff1a\u5373\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u540e\u7684CPI\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Sticky CPI: it is a subset of the CPI that includes components that change price less frequently, for example, shelter, medical care services, and transportation services. What&#039;s worth noting is that a study by Cleveland Fed in May 2010 showed that sticky CPI is a better leading indicator of inflation than other CPI measures.<\/li>\n<li>\u7075\u6d3b\u4ef7\u683cCPI\uff1a\u4e0e\u7c98\u6027CPI\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u7ec4\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u76f8\u5bf9\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u73b0\u5728\u5ba3\u79f0\u80dc\u5229\u8fd8\u4e3a\u65f6\u8fc7\u65e9<\/h2>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u9884\u8ba1\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u57282022\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ecd\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u5f00\u59cb\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8ff9\u8c61\u6301\u5ba1\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u56de\u987e\u6765\u770b\uff0c7\u6708CPI\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da88.5%\uff0c\u8f83\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u4f4e0.2\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u8f836\u6708\u6570\u636e\u4f4e0.7\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002PIMCO\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u8be6\u7ec6\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7c98\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u786e\u8ba4\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u606f\u3002Fisher Investments\u63d0\u9192\u8bfb\u8005\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u4e0b\u964d\u53ea\u662f\u57fa\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u6240\u81f4\u3002Allspring\u5bf9CPI\u6570\u636e\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4e5f\u8f83\u4e3a\u7ec6\u81f4\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u5347\u5177\u6709\u5e7f\u5ea6\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u8f6c\u5411\u3002Capital Group\u3001Amundi\u3001Schroders \u548c LGIM \u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u57288\u6708\u5b8f\u89c2\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u53ca\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u89e3\u8bfb7\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u8f68\u8ff9\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u901a\u80c0\u957f\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Re-globalization or the change in nature of globalization: geopolitical tensions are likely to accelerate the near-shoring\/reshoring\/friend-shoring phenomenon. While the international reorganization of the supply chain will help reduce its vulnerabilities, the investments involved and the loss of economies of scale will add to the cost of goods produced &ndash; see Capital Group.<\/li>\n<li>\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u7eff\u8272\u901a\u80c0\uff1aSchroders \u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u957f\u671f\u9700\u6c42\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5df2\u4e25\u91cd\u6291\u5236\u5bf9\u65b0\u589e\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u51c0\u96f6\u8f6c\u578b\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u652f\u6301\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ee4\u76f8\u5173\u6750\u6599\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u9650\u5236\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\u6ca1\u6709\u653e\u5bbd\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u9020\u6210\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e74\u9f84\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u6bcf\u5e74\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea61m\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u65e5\u76ca\u9ad8\u6da8\u7684\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u6291\u5236\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u4ee4\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u9700\u5931\u8861\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\uff1aGoldman Sachs\u57287\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8bbf\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e86 Cornell University \u6559\u6388 Chris Barrett\u3002\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ecd\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u51fb\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u9ad8\u6548\u3001\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\u6ca1\u6709\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u7a81\u51fa\u4f01\u4e1a\u62b5\u5fa1\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u97e7\u6027<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u62e5\u6709\u5b9a\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u8f6c\u5ac1\u7ed9\u5ba2\u6237\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6709\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u662f\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5206\u9500\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u54c1\u724c\uff1f\u53c2\u89c1 MFS \u7684\u80a1\u6743\u6d1e\u5bdf\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u652f\u6491\u5b9a\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\u5426\u5177\u5907\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\uff1f\u60a8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u6280\u672f\u98a0\u8986\u6216\u53bb\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>Is the cost of the product or service you provide relatively small compared to your customers&#039; overall cost base or expenses?<\/li>\n<li>\u60a8\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6709\u591a\u654f\u611f\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>Do you have any plan to invest in a localized supply chain or productivity improvement solutions? &#8211; such as technology solutions and machinery. Or better, are you supplying those solutions and equipment?<\/li>\n<li>\u9000\u4e00\u6b65\u770b\uff0c\u60a8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u5426\u5448\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u80a1\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff1fBlackRock\u3001Allianz GI \u548c GMO \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u80a1\u7968\u5f80\u5f80\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u76f8\u6bd4\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u80fd\u66f4\u5feb\u5411\u80a1\u4e1c\u8fd4\u8fd8\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f4e\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u9884\u671f\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u524d\u671f\u3002\u8d28\u91cf\u80a1\u5219\u5177\u5907\u62b5\u5fa1\u6ce2\u52a8\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u5b9e\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5e0c\u671b\u672c\u6587\u5bf9\u60a8\u6709\u6240\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002Irostors \u662f\u4e00\u7ad9\u5f0f\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9 IRO \u501f\u52a9\u6570\u5b57\u6c9f\u901a\u548c\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u63d0\u5347\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u3002\u5982\u6b32\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u514d\u8d39\u6ce8\u518c\uff0c\u6216\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u7ea6\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6f14\u793a\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We reviewed 30+ research pieces published by asset managers in the past months, most of which were inflation-related. This observation probably does not sound surprising to those who read our mid-year outlook review of investment managers and the monthly investor sentiment survey we evaluated earlier this month. In this article, we are giving you an [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":139,"template":"","class_list":["post-118","ss_article","type-ss_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article\/118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ss_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ss_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irostors.com\/zh_CN\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}